In order to play online poker well, you need to know the probability of making your hand, and then bet accordingly. Are your pot odds favorable? How many outs do you have?
You're playing online poker and get dealt a wired pair in hold 'em. How likely are you to make a set (three of a kind) on the flop? If you have to match a huge raise to find out is it wortwhile in terms of the percentages? Well, the answer is that you will flop three of a kind or better 11.8% of the time. That means your odds are 7.5 to 1. If you know you need to make a set to have a shot at winning (let's say you have a small pair like pocket 3s) then make sure you're getting the right pot odds to make the bet. If you're betting $100 to win anything less than $750, then the pot odds are not in your favor and you should fold. But if the pot is already over $800 then that bet of $100 makes sense.
That kind of knowledge is crucial if you want to win at online poker, or any version of hold 'em for that matter. Let's say that after the flop you have an open-ended straight draw. That means you have eight "outs", to make your hand, and there are 47 unseen cards in the deck. What are your odds of making this hand?
You will get your straight 31.5% of the time (presuming you wait until the river), which means your odds are 2.17 to 1. What about if you have four to the flush after the flop? Now you have 9 outs, which is 35%, and that makes your odds of hitting the flush 1.86 to 1. These can be good odds in low limit online poker games, which is why you tend to see so many people chasing.
It is now much easier for you to work out mathematically whether or not it is worthwhile to stay in a pot. If you are on a draw hand in limit hold 'em you will almost always need a number of players to play in order to make the pot odds favorable. Fortunately online poker games tend to attract lots of action.
How did we work out those odds? It is very simple. Take the percentage and then subtract it from 100%. So in the case of the straight draw: 100% - 31.5% = 68.5%. Then take that number (68.5%) and divide it by 31.5%: 68.5% / 31.5% =2.17 and those are your odds.
Learn the basic probabilities off by heart. They are available in any of the books written by Sklansky and Malmuth, and they are essential for any serious poker player. Remember - successful online poker is all about understanding pot odds and percentages!
